Archive for October 31, 2009

The Rising Crime Rate In Iraq

Posted on October 31, 2009 by

Iraq’s security situation has greatly improved since the height of the sectarian war. Now Iraqis are facing a new danger, rising crime. In fact, the two issues are linked as many blame former insurgents and militiamen for carrying out kidnappings, robberies, etc., as they have no other means to support themselves. Members of the security forces have also been implicated, pointing to the high levels of every day corruption that exists in the country.

Crime in Iraq takes many forms. One that is getting increasing press is kidnapping. Those occurred before, but they had political or sectarian overtones or were done to fund militant groups. Today they are increasingly for pure profit. As a sign of this change, children are becoming a favorite target. There are districts of Baghdad that are plastered with photos of missing kids. The Times of London reported in early October 2009 that the price for a kidnapped child can go as high as $100,000. Many families are said to negotiate with the criminals rather than go to the police.

High-profile robberies are also increasing. The most famous recent case was in July 2009 when members of a Vice President’s security detail held up the Rafidain Bank in Baghdad, stealing $4.8 million and killing 8 people. In August four men with IDs from the Interior Ministry robbed a bank in the capital, and in mid-October thieves held up three jewelry stores in Baghdad as well. In the latter case, 12-15 armed men got out of a minibus and robbed the businesses, while a checkpoint nearby did nothing. Six soldiers and an officer were subsequently arrested for failing to secure the area.

Smuggling is another major issue. This began during Saddam’s time, and has probably increased since then. One reason is because when the U.S. disbanded the Iraqi security forces in 2003 they did away with the border guards, which are only now getting attention. One major item stolen within Iraq and smuggled is oil. A December 2008 audit of the state-run North Oil Company found that 698,000 barrels of oil could be not accounted for, with crime being the major cause. This is another example of a trade that was begun by insurgents to pay for their operations, that is now done increasingly for personnel gain.

There is also a growing sex market for young Iraqi girls. There was a report in Time magazine in March 2009 that said tens of thousands of girls were believed to have been shipped off by criminal gangs to countries like Syria, Jordan, and the United Arab Emirates.

A military spokesman in Baghdad said that former militants and gangs are responsible for 60-70% of the crimes investigated in the capital. With the decline in insurgent, and especially Shiite militia and Special Group activities, and a bad labor market, there is little to do for many young men. That is probably the number one reason for the increase in criminal behavior. Iraq has set up a special task force to go after gangs following a series of jewel robberies in April 2009. On the other hand, the press reports that the authorities have blocked investigations of the sex trade. The high levels of corruption amongst the security forces might also undermine this work. It also shows that while security has improved, law and order has yet to be established in Iraq.

SOURCES

Abouzeid, Rania, “Iraq’s Unspeakable Crime: Mothers Pimping Daughters,” Time, 3/7/09

Bakri, Nada, “Eight Killed In Baghdad Jewel Heists,” Washington Post, 10/15/09

Denselow, James, “The thieves of Baghdad,” Guardian, 10/9/09

Kerbaj, Richard, “Child hostages offer quick way for Iraqi gangsters to make money,” Times of London, 10/7/09

Miller, Deborah, “Iraqis face new threat: brutal violence,” Cleveland Plain Dealer,” 9/21/09

Oppel, Richard, “Iraq’s Insurgency Runs on Stolen Oil Profits,” New York Times, 3/16/08

Williams, Timothy, “As Iraq Seeks Oil Investors, They See an Uncertain Bet,” New York Times, 10/14/09

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>Two Provinces Respond To The Drought

Posted on October 30, 2009 by

>Basra in southern Iraq and Irbil in Kurdistan are responding to the drought in different ways. Basra wants to be declared a disaster area and is calling for immediate relief, while Irbil is thinking more long-term and trying to create a water policy.

According to the United Nations, 46-56% of Irbil’s cropland has been hit by the drought. Many farmers in the north rely upon rain to grow their crops, and that has been down 33-50% from 2007 to 2008. As a result, Irbil’s crop production dropped 80% last year. In response, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) is attempting to create its first water policy. Currently, residents of the region pay $1 for unlimited water use per month, with the rest subsidized by the KRG. A Swedish company was hired to install 100 water meters in one area of Irbil and found that Kurds use more water than many countries. The KRG now plans on installing 100,000 water meters by the end of the year to start regulating water use. This would be a first in the entire country.

In Basra, not only has its farmland been hit by the drought, but its fresh water supply has as well. 6-25% of the province’s cropland has been affected by the drought. More important is the rising salinity levels, and the incursion of seawater inland. As a result, up to 5,000 villagers have left their land, and the governorate’s director of agriculture warned that farming might be wiped out. The situation is so bad that the local council has asked the province be declared a disaster area. Rather than move to conserve water like Irbil, Basra is in more of a crisis mode and thinking short-term. At the beginning of September 2009, the governor went to Baghdad to talk with Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki who promised a $20 million project to build water pipes to Basra. That would obviously provide no immediate relief. For that the Ministry of Municipalities and Public Works initiated eight new water purification projects, and the province signed a deal with Iran to deliver 650,000 liters of drinking water every two days. On October 9, the first Iranian shipped docked in Basra’s harbor to deliver the water.

As reported before, Iraq’s drought is reaching disaster levels. Population growth, lack of rain, and no government water policy are the major causes. Iraq’s neighbors are also facing a drought, and they have built dams along many of the major waterways that flow into Iraq. The country’s crops and population have both been affected. Baghdad has still not come up with any real response even though the drought has lasted for two years. That has left the provinces to fend for themselves. Basra is looking short-term, while Irbil is taking the long view. Both approaches need to be considered and coordinated with the central government, but that is simply not happening even though conditions are getting worse.

SOURCES

Alsumaria, “Iran provides Iraq with drinking water,” 10/9/09
- “Will Basra be announced a disaster area?” 9/30/09

Aswat al-Iraq, “8 new water projects in Basra,” 9/26/09
- “Basra governor vows drinking water to all Basra,” 9/6/09
- “Official says Basra’s agriculture may be wiped out,” 8/26/09

Blua, Antoine, “Iraq Tussles With Neighbors Over Water,” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 9/13/09

Chulov, Martin, “Surge of seawater drives Iraqis from their homes in the south,” Guardian, 9/11/09
- “Water shortage threatens two million people in southern Iraq,” Guardian, 8/26/09

Hamad, Qassim Khidhir, “Kurdish authorities call for water restrictions,” Niqash, 10/8/09

United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, “Iraq Humanitarian Update,” October 2008

Al-Wazzan, Saleem, “salt levels in shatt al-arab threaten environmental disaster,” Niqash, 9/2/09

Zavis, Alexandra, “First violence, now drought threatens Iraq farmers,” Los Angeles Times, 6/26/08

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>Almost Half Of Iraqis Live In Slum Conditions

Posted on October 29, 2009 by

>The United Nations Habitat for a Better Future project just released a fact sheet on the housing conditions in Iraq. It found that 40% of Iraqis live in slum conditions.

Iraq is a largely urban nation. 71% of the population lives in cities. Of those, 57% live in slum conditions according to the U.N. Diyala, 86%, Maysan, 82%, and Tamim, 78%, were the worst off, while Irbil, 38%, Sulaymaniya, 42%, and Salahaddin, 46%, had the lowest numbers. The main causes are population growth, overcrowding, internal displacement, and poor housing conditions. The U.N. warns that the situation will only get worse. From 1970 to 2007 Iraq’s population almost tripled in size. By 2030 they predict the country will have around 50 million people due to the large number of young people and high fertility rates. That means more overcrowding in Iraq’s urban centers.


% Of Households Living In Slum Conditions By Province
Irbil 38%
Sulaymaniya 42%
Salahaddin 46%
Dohuk 49%
Karbala 49%
Babil 52%
Baghdad 52%
Basra 54%
Ninewa 56%
Wasit 58%
Dhi Qar 59%
Anbar 59%
Najaf 64%
Muthanna 67%
Qadisiyah 73%
Tamim 78%
Maysan 82%
Diyala 86%
Iraq overall 57%

The U.N. doesn’t believe this situation will be alleviated anytime soon because of a number of issues. Among them are laws limiting private investment, banks that give few personal loans, and a government that is slow to open public land to development. There is legislation, for example, that bars companies from owning land. Strong Iraqi nationalism that opposes foreign corporations, a largely state-run economy, and election year politics all deter Iraqi politicians from changing the laws and regulations. Like so many other things, Iraq is facing a growing problem that needs a response, yet the government is unwilling and unable to meet the challenge.

SOURCES

Abbas, Mohammed, “Iraq aims to allow foreign investors to own land,” Reuters, 5/25/09

Inter-Agency Information and Analysis Unit, “Fact Sheet: Housing & Shelter in Iraq,” UN Habitat for a Better Future, 10/5/09

Ryan, Missy and al-Ansary, Khalid, “Iraq investment still hindered by politics, bureaucracy,” Reuters, 10/7/09

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>Low Level Violence Persists in Anbar

Posted on October 28, 2009 by

>Anbar was once the center of the Sunni insurgency. After the Awakening movement and the Surge however, violence there dropped dramatically. Every time there’s a mass casualty bombing in the province however, there are concerns that militants are making a comeback. The latest incident was an October 11, 2009 attack on the provincial council building in Ramadi, which ended up killing 23, and wounding 65, while members of the National Reconciliation Committee were meeting with local Anbar officials. This led to stories like “Iraq: Insurgency fears rise as bombs kill 19 in Ramadi,” by the Associated Press, “Iraq bombings target reconciliation meeting, killing 26” in the Los Angeles Times, “Triple bombing kills scores in Anbar Province” by the Christian Science Monitor, and “3 Bombings Target Police in Iraq” in the Washington Post, all of which asked whether the attack was a sign that the security situation in Anbar was worsening.

As reported before, trying to read Iraq based upon mass casualty bombings gives a very distorted view of the situation there. A look at security incidents and casualties shows that Anbar has hardly changed in the last year, and violence there has followed national trends.

The last set of comprehensive security statistics released by the U.S. in July 2009 showed that Anbar was the sixth most violent governorate in Iraq out of eighteen. Attacks went through a steady decline there from April 2008 to March 2009, as they did throughout the country, correlating to the January 2009 provincial elections, and the negotiations that took place afterward to form new governments. After that attacks crept back up from April to July 2009. From April 1 to July 1, 2008 for example, there were 275 security incidents recorded by the U.S. military in Anbar, which then dropped to 53 from January 1 to March 20, 2009. From April to July they increased to 92. In comparison, Ninewa province, the home to Mosul, probably the least stable city in the country, had 454 for those same months.

Security Incidents Reported In Anbar Province By U.S. Military
4/1/08-7/1/08: 275
7/1/08-9/30/08: 209
10/1/08-12/31/08: 162
1/1/09-3/20/09: 53
4/1/09-7/21/09: 92

When going through press accounts of casualties, Anbar followed the same trend. There was a dip in January and February 2009 compared to the end of 2008, and then the number of dead and wounded slowly went back up for the rest of 2009. Quarterly averages for example, show that there were an average of 8.66 monthly incidents in Anbar for the last quarter of 2008 resulting in 25.33 deaths per month and 77.66 wounded. That dropped to just 3.66 attacks per month, 8.66 deaths, and 9.66 wounded for the first quarter of 2009. By the 3rd quarter, the number of average monthly attacks had risen dramatically to 20.66, but the resulting deaths, 24.33, and wounded, 84.00, were about the same as the 4th quarter of 2008.

Security Incidents In Anbar October 2008-September 2009

October 08
Attacks/Incidents: 11
Deaths: 11
Wounded: 30

November 08
Attacks/Incidents: 6
Deaths: 20
Wounded: 31 + 2 Americans

December 08
Attacks/Incidents: 9
Deaths: 45
Wounded: 170

January 09
Attacks/Incidents: 3
Deaths: 13
Wounded: 13

February 09
Attacks/Incidents: 3
Deaths: 3
Wounded: 2

March 09
Attacks/Incidents: 5
Deaths: 10
Wounded: 14 + 2 Americans

April 09
Attacks/Incidents: 11
Deaths: 31
Wounded: 64

May 09
Attacks/Incidents: 9
Deaths: 12
Wounded: 11

June 09
Attacks/Incidents: 24
Deaths: 29
Wounded: 53+

July 09
Attacks/Incidents: 22
Deaths: 33
Wounded: 126

August 09
Attacks/Incidents: 23
Deaths: 16
Wounded: 62

September 09
Attacks/Incidents: 17
Deaths: 24
Wounded: 64

Averages
4th Quarter of 2008: 8.66 Attacks/Incidents/month, 25.33 deaths/month, 77.66 wounded/month
1st Quarter of 2009: 3.66 Attacks/Incidents/month, 8.66 deaths/month, 9.66 wounded/month
2nd Quarter of 2009: 14.66 Attacks/Incidents/month, 24.0 deaths/month, 42.66 wounded/month
3rd Quarter of 2009: 20.66 Attacks/Incidents/month, 24.33 deaths/months, 84.00 wounded/month

Violence in Anbar is largely due to two factors. First, there are still Al Qaeda in Iraq and other insurgent and tribal allies active in the province that are attempting to let the Awakening movement, and the Iraqi government know that they are still around. Second, the tribes that aligned themselves with the Americans have broken up into several factions, most of which are extreme rivals with each other. Divisions, feuds, and violence were common occurrences amongst the sheikhs in the past, so there’s no reason to believe that those same dynamics don’t still exist in Anbar today. Together, these two causes are likely to maintain the low level of attacks and casualties currently seen in the governorate.

SOURCES

Associated Press, “Iraq: Insurgency fears rise as bombs kill 19 in Ramadi,” Guardian, 10/11/09

Aswat al-Iraq, “2 cops wounded in Anbar blast,” 8/19/09
- “2 emergency personnel killed in blast near Ramadi,” 9/28/09
- “2 Iraqi soldiers wounded in blast in Falluja,” 8/16/09
- “2 Iraqi soldiers wounded in blast in Falluja,” 8/25/09
- “2 policemen wounded in blast near Anbar,” 9/8/09
- “2 roadside bombs defused, 4 suspects arrested in Falluja,” 8/25/09
- “3 cops injured in IED,” 3/31/09
- “3 policemen wounded in blast near Falluja,” 11/15/08
- “3 soldiers injured in eastern Falluja,” 9/23/09
- “4 killed in attack in Falluja,” 8/16/09
- “6 cops killed, wounded in 2nd Falluja blast,” 12/28/08
- “Blast hits Iraqi army patrol in Falluja,” 8/17/09
- “Car bomb seized in Falluja” 8/25/09
- “Cop killed, 3 wounded in accident in Anbar,” 10/17/08
- “Cop killed, 6 wounded in Falluja suicide bombing,” 12/28/08
- “Falluja blast kills, wounds 7,” 12/24/08
- “Falluja chieftain escapes attempt on his life,” 8/23/09
- “Gunman killed, 2 civilians injured in Ramadi,” 9/3/09
- “Gunman killed in blast in Falluja,” 9/17/09
- “IED defused in central Falluja,” 8/18/09
- “IED defused in Falluja,” 8/13/09
- “IED defused in Falluja without incident,” 10/27/08
- “IED wounds 3 civilians in Falluja,” 9/23/09
- “Police officer killed in Ramadi,” 11/13/08
- “Roadside bomb goes off in western Falluja,” 2/24/09
- “Roadside bomb wounds 3 cops in Falluja,” 8/11/09
- “Sticky bomb injures 2 civilians in Falluja,” 9/23/09
- “Suicide attack kills cop, injures 2 in Falluja,” 3/20/09
- “Tight security in Falluja after blasts,” 12/28/08
- “Toll from Falluja car bombing increases to 23,” 8/3/09
- “Toll of Anbar bombings increases to 8 dead, 22 injured,” 10/11/09
- “U.S. forces shoot mentally handicapped person in Falluja,” 9/16/09
- “URGENT/3 cops wounded in Falluja blast,” 10/18/08
- “Woman killed, 5 civilians injured in Falluja,” 9/16/09
- “Woman killed, 6 wounded in central Anbar,” 8/5/09

BBC, “Falluja car bomb blast ‘kills 13,’” 1/24/09

CNN, “7 prisoners, 6 officers killed in Iraqi jailbreak,” 12/26/08

DPA, “Iraqi tribal leader escapes assassination attempt south of Baghdad,” 3/22/09

Al Dulaimy, Mohammed, “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Wednesday 16 September, 2009,” McClatchy Newspapers, 9/16/09
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Sunday 16 August, 2009,” McClatchy Newspapers, 8/16/09

Hammoudi, Laith, “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Friday 14 August, 2009,” McClatchy Newspapers, 8/14/09
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Friday 21 August, 2009,” McClatchy Newspapers, 8/21/09
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Sunday 27 September, 2009,” McClatchy Newspapers, 9/27/09
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Tuesday 28 October, 2008,” McClatchy Newspapers, 10/28/08

Iraq Today, December 2008
- September 2009

Issa, Sahar, “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Monday 28 September, 2009,” McClatchy Newspapers, 9/28/09
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Saturday 6 December, 2008,” McClatchy Newspapers, 12/6/08
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Saturday 8 November, 2008,” McClatchy Newspapers, 11/8/08
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Wednesday 19 August, 2009,” McClatchy Newspapers, 8/19/09

Issa, Sahar and Kadhim, Hussein, “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Tuesday 24 March, 2009,” McClatchy Newspapers, 3/24/09

Kadhi, Hussein “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Thursday 09 October 2008,” McClatchy Newspapers, 10/9/08
Kadhi, Hussein “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Thursday 19 February 2009,” McClatchy Newspapers, 2/19/09

Kropf, Schuyler, “Mount Pleasant solder killed,” The Post and Courier, 11/7/08

KUNA, “Woman suicide bomber sets off explosives at hospital entrance in Iraq,” 11/9/08

McCary, John, “The Anbar Awakening: An Alliance of Incentives,” Washington Quarterly, January 2009

Al-Mokhtar, Uthman and Bakri, Nada, “3 Bombings Target Police in Iraq,” Washington Post, 10/12/09

Perth Now, “’Imad the killer’ shot dead by cops,” 12/27/08

Press TV, “Car bomber kills 5, wounds 13 in Iraq,” 1/24/09

Reuters, “Double suicide bombing kills 8 in western Iraq,” 11/8/08
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Aug 12,” 8/12/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Feb 19,” 2/19/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Jan 3,” 1/3/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, March 20,” 3/20/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Nov 3,” 11/3/08
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Nov 13,” 11/13/08
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Oct 17,” 10/17/08
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Oct 18,” 10/18/08
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Oct 25,” 10/25/08
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Oct 26,” 10/26/08
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Oct 29,” 10/29/08
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Sept 3,” 9/3/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Sept 28,” 9/28/09
- “Gunmen attack, burn ballot station before Iraq vote,” 1/27/09

Shadid, Anthony, “In Anbar, U.S.-Allied Tribal Chiefs Feel Deep Sense of Abandonment,” Washington Post, 10/3/09

Sly, Liz, “Iraq bombings target reconciliation meeting, killing 26,” Los Angeles Times, 10/12/09

Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, – “Quarterly Report and Semiannual Report to the United States Congress,” 1/30/09
-”Quarterly Report and Semiannual Report to the United States Congress,” 7/30/09
- “Quarterly Report to the United States Congress,” 10/30/08
- “Quarterly Report to the United States Congress,” 4/30/09

Williams, Timothy, “Bombings Outside Iraq Reconciliation Meeting Kill 23,” New York Times, 10/11/09

Xinhua, “Iraqi police foil suicide car bomb attack in W Iraq,” 8/12/09
- “Suicide bomber kills 2 security members in W Iraq,” 8/15/09
- “Up to 15 killed, 147 injured in Fallujah twin suicide attacks,” 12/4/08

Yusuf, Huma, “Triple bombing kills scores in Anbar Province,” Christian Science Monitor, 10/12/09

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>Baghdad Bombing Follows Trend In Violence In Iraq

Posted on October 27, 2009 by

>Sunday’s devastating bombing on the Justice and Municipalities Ministries, and the Baghdad provincial council building in the capital follows the current trend in Iraqi violence. Since April 2009, the number of deaths has fluctuated up and down each month. According to Iraq’s ministries for example, there were 355 deaths in April, 165 in May, 438 in June, 275 in July, 456 in August, and 203 in September. The other major sources on Iraqi casualties (Iraq Body Count, icasualties, the Brookings Institute, and the Associated Press) all record the same pattern. One could predict then, that October 2009 would see an increase in casualties. Already there have been 214 deaths due to mass casualty bombings this month, 135 from yesterday’s bombing alone. Monthly deaths are still at their lowest levels since the 2003 U.S. invasion.

The ebb and flow of violence shows the relative weakness of militants. They are only able to launch large attacks every other month. This month does show their increasing ability to carry out headline grabbing bombings however, in their attempt to destabilize the government, just as they did in August when they bombed the Finance and Foreign Ministries. That incident along with Sunday’s undermine Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s claim that he has brought security to Iraq, which might hurt his re-election campaign in the 2010 vote.

It’s also important to remember not to track overall security in Iraq based upon such bombings. There is no direct correlation between such attacks and overall security incidents in Iraq or casualties. In June 2009 for instance, there were 14 mass casualty bombings resulting in 174 deaths. For July there were 35 such attacks and 180 casualties, yet June had more deaths overall than July. According to the latest statistics released by the U.S. military, the number of overall security incidents in Iraq has also stayed pretty much steady since March 2009 at just about 200 per week. Overall, casualties in Iraq are still at unacceptable levels, but they are nowhere near as bad as they were during the sectarian war.

SOURCES

Al-Anbari, Bassim, “Triple attacks kill 19 in western Iraqi city,” Associated Press, 10/12/09

Associated Press, “Police: Suicide bomber kills 11 at mosque,” 10/16/09
- “Suicide bomb kills 6 at funeral,” 10/6/09

Aswat al-Iraq, “10 civilians wounded in Babel blast,” 10/4/09
- “Blast kills 1, wounds 9 north of Hilla,” 10/18/09
- “Sticky bomb kills 2 women, injures 12 persons in Babel,” 10/21/09
- “Suicide attack leaves 16 casualties in Diala,” 10/13/09

Bernama, “Civilian Killed, 10 Injured In Bomb Attack In Baghdad Snack Restaurant,” 10/19/09

Cordesman, Anthony, “Recent Trends in the Iraq War: Maps and Graphs,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10/1/09

DPA, “Four policemen killed in Iraq,” 10/17/09

Hammoudi, Laith, “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Sunday 18 October 2009,” McClatchy Newspapers, 10/18/09

Issa, Sahar, “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Thursday 8 October 2009,” McClatchy Newspapers, 10/8/09

ITN, “Clear up after Iraq minibus bombing,” 10/7/09

Kimball, Jack, “Attacks kill 11, wound over 50 people,” Reuters, 10/15/09

McClatchy Newspapers, “Car bombs explode in Baghdad, killing at least 135 people,” 10/25/09

Reuters, “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Oct 11,” 10/11/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Oct 18,” 10/18/09

Shadid, Anthony, “Scores killed, at least 500 wounded in bomb attacks in Baghdad,” 10/25/09

Surk, Barbara, “Bombs kill 6 around Iraq,” Associated Press, 10/20/09

Xinhua, “2 killed, 13 wounded in Baghdad bomb attack,” 10/18/09
- “12 people wounded in bomb explosion in south Baghdad,” 10/21/09
- “Bomb explosion kills 3 south of Baghdad,” 10/8/09

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>Ruling Kurdish Parties Try To Co-Opt And Intimidate Opposition

Posted on October 25, 2009 by

>The Kurdistan Regional Government’s (KRG) July 2009 parliamentary elections were touted as a sea change in Kurdish politics. For the first time, the ruling Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) of KRG President Massoud Barzani and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) of Iraqi President Jalal Talabani faced a real challenge from the new Change List headed by the co-founder of the PUK Nishurwan Mustafa. Change ran on greater transparency and democracy. They ended up winning 25 of 111 seats, while the Service and Reform List, a coalition of leftist and Islamist parties, won 13. Since then the KDP and PUK have tried to cajole and bully these new opposition groups.

First, the KDP and PUK have tried to co-opt the Service and Reform List. The list was always a strange mix. On the one hand there were two Islamist groups, the Kurdistan Islamic Union and the Kurdistan Islamic Group, and on the other were the Kurdistan Socialist Democratic Party and the Future Party. The mixture of religious and secular parties always seemed to be a marriage of convenience. The KDP and PUK have tried to play on these divisions by offering ministries in the Kurdish government in return for them joining the ruling coalition. So far, the Kurdistan Socialist Democratic Party and its two seats, and the Future Party with one seat are on the verge of joining the KDP and PUK, and the Kurdistan Islamic Group with four seats are in negotiations to do the same. That leaves only the Kurdistan Islamic Union and the Change List as being committed to being in the opposition. Together they have 31 of 111 seats in the Kurdish assembly.

The PUK and KDP are trying to do something similar for the January 2010 national parliamentary elections. The two parties form the Kurdish Alliance in the legislature, and want all the other Kurdish parties to run as one list in the coming vote. They argue that since there are so many unresolved issues between the KRG and Baghdad, the Kurds need to form a united front. The Change List however, said that they will run separately, but are open to working with the Kurdish Alliance after the balloting in parliament.

At the same time, the PUK and KDP are continuing with their intimidation campaign against the Change List. Before the vote, Change supporters were losing their government jobs, during the election there were all kinds irregularities reported, and afterwards the Change List offices in Irbil were attacked, and their followers got into fights in Sulaymaniya. Since then, the Change List is accusing the ruling parties of firing their members in the peshmerga militia and security forces. Teachers have also said that those who voted for the Change List have been let go or demoted as well.

Kurdistan has been ruled by the PUK and KDP since it got its autonomy from Saddam following the 1991 Gulf War. The administration of the KRG has been noted for cronyism, corruption, tribalism, and a lack of transparency. The 2009 Kurdish elections were widely hailed as a transformative vote since it was the first time that the opposition received a sizeable proportion of the vote. The actions of the ruling parties since then however show that they are still thinking the same way. They are still in control, and want to maintain their position by any means whether by buying off the opposition or threatening them.

SOURCES

AK News, “Kurdish involvement in polls: one list vs. numerous lists,” 10/7/09

Hamad, Qassim Khidhir, “kurdish election lists,” Niqash, 6/30/09

Taha, Yaseen, “kurdish opposition splinters,” Niqash, 10/7/09

Tahir, Wrya Hama, “Kurdish Opposition Say Supporters Targeted in Workplace,” Institute for War & Peace Reporting, 10/2/09

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>Iraq Ministry Counts 85,000 Dead From 2004-Oct. 2008

Posted on October 24, 2009 by

>Iraq’s Human Rights Ministry recently released a report on the situation in Iraq. Part of it included casualty figures for 2004 to October 2008. The Ministry counted 85,694 civilians and security force members killed, and 147,195 people wounded. Those figures are very close to the two other organizations that have kept count of deaths in Iraq for that time period. The Brookings Institution’s Iraq Index for example, recorded 101,709 deaths from 2004 to October 2008, while Iraq Body Count had 85,903.

There have been other studies on deaths that have used sampling. There was a 2007 World Health Organization and Iraqi government study that reported 151,000 deaths from 2003 to 2005. The Johns Hopkins University and al-Mustansiriya University in Iraq paper published in the medical journal Lancet estimated 601,027 deaths from violence. That study has largely been discredited however, and its members have refused to answer basic questions about their research or share their work with others.

While the actual number of deaths is probably higher than the Human Rights Ministry’s study, it along with other source such as Iraq Body Count, the Iraq Index, and the Associated Press, provide a good starting point for estimating how many have lost their lives during the Iraq War.

Yearly Death Counts

Iraqi Ministry Of Human Rights
2004: 11,313
2005: 15,817
2006: 32,622
2007: 19,155
Jan.-Oct. 2008: 6,787
TOTAL: 85,694

Brookings Institution Iraq Index
2004: 16,804
2005: 20,163
2006: 34,452
2007: 24,550
Jan.-Oct. 2008: 5,740
TOTAL: 101,709

Iraq Body Count
2004: 10,751
2005: 14,832
2006: 27,652
2007: 24,457
Jan.-Oct. 2008: 8,211
TOTAL: 85,694

For an overview of total Iraqi deaths since the 2003 invasion see:

How Many Have Died In Iraq And By What Means?

SOURCES

BBC, “Iraqi death researcher censured,” 2/4/09

Iraq Body Count

Munro, Neil and Cannon, Carl, “Data Bomb,” National Journal, 1/4/08

O’Hanlon, Michael Campbell, Jason, “Iraq Index,” 9/22/09

Salaheddin, Sinan, “Government says 85,000 Iraqis killed in 2004-08,” Associated Press, 10/14/08

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>Inflation Worries Return For Iraq

Posted on October 23, 2009 by

>The latest statistics for Iraq show that core inflation is creeping back up in the country. Since early 2008 core inflation, that which excludes fuel, electricity, communication, and transport costs, has dropped in Iraq from 15.9% in April to 3.8% in April 2009. Since then however, it has crept back up to 10.8% in August. A United Nations report from that same month warned that food prices were rising sharply in Iraq, while other costs like medicine and rents have also increased.

Overall inflation has not followed the same pattern. In February 2008 it stood at 8.1%, only to drop to -6.3% in June, then rose at the end of the year to 7.6% by October. After that it dropped again to -5.7% in April 2009, and has since gone back up to -0.3% by August.

While of concern, these numbers are nowhere near what inflation was like before. In 2002 it was around 60%. The instability and sectarian violence after the U.S. invasion caused inflation to rise to 65% by 2006. After the Central Bank tightened the money supply, and linked the Iraqi dinar to the U.S. dollar inflation has largely been under control. By 2007 for example, it was down to 12%. Those policies have increased the buying power of the average Iraqi, and any increase in inflation will cut into that.

Iraq’s Inflation/Core Inflation Rate
2008
Jan. 1.3%/10.8%
Feb. 8.1%/13.8%
March 5.6%/12.1%
April 5.5%/15.9%
May 4.6%/14.7%
June -6.3%/12.4%
July -1.4%/13.6%
Aug. -5.2%/12.0%
Sep. 0.3%/12.9%
Oct. 7.6%/13.6%
Nov. 6.7%/12.7%
Dec. 6.8%/11.7%
2009
Jan. 0.6%/9.2%
Feb. 0.2%/7.1%
March -3.1%/8.3%
April -5.7%/3.8%
May-5.6%/4.7%
June 0.7%/8.8%
July -1.5%/7.9%
Aug. -0.3%/10.8%

SOURCES

Department of Defense, “Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq,” March 2008

Inter-Agency Information and Analysis Unit, “Iraq Food Prices Analysis,” August 2009

Reuters, “Iraq inflation rises to 8.11 pct in August,” 9/21/08

Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, “Quarterly Report and Semiannual Report to the United States Government,” 7/30/07
- “Quarterly Report and Semiannual Report to the United States Congress,” 7/30/09

U.S. Department of State, “Iraq Status Report,” 1/28/09
- “Iraq Status Report,” 6/10/09
- “Iraq Status Report,” 10/7/09

Whitelaw, Kevin, “After The Fall,” U.S. News & World Report, 12/2/02

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>The Islamist Side Of Maliki’s Dawa Party

Posted on October 22, 2009 by

>One of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s main appeals today in Iraq is his secular stance, something he is running on for the 2010 elections. Despite his Dawa Party’s Islamist roots, Maliki has largely discarded that past history to run on things like security, services, and Iraqi nationalism. However in the last few months, Dawa controlled provincial councils in southern Iraq have begun enforcing Islamic rules.

After the January 2009 provincial elections, Maliki’s State of Law List took control of Basra and Najaf. In August 2009, the Basra council outlawed the sale of alcohol. The deputy governor said that this was legal since the constitution bans violations of Islam. There has also been a push to enforce Islamic dress codes, and gender segregation in public spaces in Basra, some of which the State of Law governor has supported. At the beginning of November, Najaf also outlawed alcohol sales and consumption. The council there said that since the city of Najaf contains a holy shrine, it should not have drinking. These moves highlight the differences between the national and local branches of the State of Law List and Dawa Party. Maliki himself may have dropped religious issues from his rhetoric and policies, but that doesn’t mean his party and followers have. The fact that these laws have been enacted in both Najaf, which is known for its religious history, and Basra, home to Iraq’s second largest city, show that Islamic rules could be imposed anywhere under Maliki’s coalition, and that secularism only goes so deep in current Iraqi politics.

SOURCES

Agence France Presse, “Iraq holy Shiite city of Najaf bans alcohol,” 10/10/09

Haugh, Maj. Timothy, “The Sadr II Movement: An Organizational Fight for Legitimacy within the Iraqi Shi’a Community,” Strategic Insights, May 2005

Lawrence, Quil, “Secular, Religious Blocs Jockey For Position In Iraq,” NPR, 10/8/09

Visser, Reidar, “Ahmad al-Sulayti, or, Maliki’s Basra Problem,” Iraq and Gulf Analysis, 9/7/09

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>Iraq’s Oil Exports Continue To Rise And Fall

Posted on October 21, 2009 by

>The October 7, 2009 State Department Iraq Status Report, found that while Iraq’s oil production has continued to increase since the beginning of the year, its exports took a dip over the last two months. 2008 saw the highest average monthly oil production since the U.S. invasion. For that year, Iraq produced an average of 2.41 million barrels per day, and exported 1.84 million barrels. For the first nine months of 2009 Iraq has been pumping less, an average of 2.39 million barrels, but exporting more, 1.91 million barrels. The 2009 budget however called for 2 million barrels a day in foreign sales. That was achieved for only two months, July and August, constituting the most oil exported since 2003. Since that peak, exports have dipped while overall production has continued to rise. In July Iraq produced 2.48 million barrels and exported 2.08 million. The next month it produced the same amount, but exports dropped to 2.0 million barrels. Finally, in September production climbed again to 2.5 million barrels, but foreign sales dropped to 1.95 million barrels.

The results of this uneven output has been a financial pinch for the government. Iraq is currently running a $19 billion budget deficit. Since international oil prices have not recovered from the world recession that means Iraq will continue to have these problems next year as well. Baghdad is already in negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a $5 billion loan to help with its 2010 and 2011 budgets, but the Finance Minister said that it needs $7 billion. The IMF is also calling for cuts in spending. In a speech, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki said that the Fund wanted a slash in salaries, something Baghdad was not willing to do. The Iraqi government is the largest employer in Iraq, and Maliki claimed 74% of the budget goes to their wages. Elections are scheduled for January 2010, which is probably why the Prime Minister is weary of reducing pay.

Iraq’s oil industry is wracked by political divisions, lax maintenance, deteriorating infrastructure, and lacks foreign investment. Its production has continually fluctuated up and down as a result, and the government has never met its production goals. At the same time, the other parts of the country’s economy have declined since 2003, leaving Iraq more dependent upon oil than ever before. Until the country overcomes its internal divisions, this situation is unlikely to change, and only a full recovery in the international economy and a spurt in oil prices will provide Iraq any financial relief.

2009 Iraqi Oil Production/Exports in Millions of Barrels Per Day
Jan. 2.15/1.91
Feb. 2.32/1.77
Mar. 2.37/1.81
Apr. 2.37/1.83
May 2.41/1.9
Jun. 2.43/1.96
Jul. 2.48/2.08
Aug. 2.48/2.0
Sep. 2.50/1.94

SOURCES

Agence France Presse, “Iraq made ‘good progress’ in IMF loan talks: IMF,” 10/6/09

Associated Press, “Iraq predicts budget crunch for next year,” 9/29/09

Madhani, Aamer, “Iraq’s economy sputters as oil prices drop,” USA Today, 1/28/09

Reuters, “Iraq PM Says Cannot Cut Public Pay To Suit IMF,” 10/7/09

U.S. Department of State, “Iraq Status Report,” 10/7/09

Zawya, “Iraq Central Bank Opposes Issuing Treasury Bills To Finance Projects,” 9/27/09

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